Analyzing and Simulating the Influence of a Water Conveyance Project on Land Use Conditions in the Tarim River Region

Abstract

Arid and semi-arid areas are facing severe land degradation and desertification due to water scarcity. To alleviate these environmental issues, the Chinese government has launched a “water conveyance” project for environmental protection along the Tarim River. While previous studies have mainly focused on environmental conditions, the influence of these policies on land use conditions remains less explored. Therefore, this study first simulated the land use and land cover (LULC) changes in a major city (Korla) around the Tarim River. We found that the water conveyance routes have exerted notable influences on surrounding LULC changes. Next, we primarily focused on the LULC changes among different reaches of the Tarim River. We found that water and forest areas in the lower reaches have increased at the expense of a slight decrease in such areas in the upper and middle reaches, which suggests that the water conveyance policy may also have unintended consequences. These findings could attract the attention of decision makers in many other arid and semi-arid areas, and they could provide practical policy implications for other similar inter-basin water conveyance projects. The benefits and risks of these man-made projects should be carefully balanced.

Keywords

• cellular automata
• water conveyance
• land use and land cover
• geosimulation
• Xinjiang