Development of Upper Euphrates Basin hydro-economic model and hydropower generation optimization

Abstract

Hydro-economic optimization models are common in hydropower reservoir modeling to aid system operators and planners. In these models, operations are driven by the economic value and constrained by the availability of water. The objective is to either minimize total costs or maximize total benefits. In this study, a hydro-economic optimization model for the integrated reservoir system of the Upper Euphrates Basin, with major tributaries providing water flow to the Euphrates River, is introduced. These model the 10 large-scale reservoirs of the basin with a total installed capacity of 3,255 MW. Water management and hydropower decision-making operations are evaluated with a piecewise linear programming algorithm in monthly time steps using a 45-year historical hydrology between 1971 and 2016. The model aims to maximize hydropower revenue over a long-term time horizon with energy prices varying by month. Reservoir storage and turbine release decisions are optimized for multiple hydropower plants connected in serial or parallel. Hydropower generation, revenue, reservoir storage, capacity ratios and generation reliability results are analyzed. Results show that these hydropower plants generate about 9,481 Gigawatt hour (GWh) of energy with an average turbine capacity use of 36% and obtain a revenue of 620 million $ per year. HIGHLIGHTS With the Upper Euphrates Basin Hydro-economic Model (FEHEM), a hydro-economic optimization model covering a 45-year period of hydrological datasets was developed.; With the FEHEM, cost estimates can be developed for adaptation projects to be carried out in the Euphrates Basin water system under future climatic conditions and adaptation strategies that minimize the costs of increased hydrological variability can be developed.;

Keywords

• climate change
• hydro-economic model
• hydropower energy
• integrated basin management
• the upper euphrates basin