Prognostic Factors for Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Advanced-stage Hodgkin Lymphoma: A Nationwide Retrospective Study

Abstract

Introduction While Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is mostly curable, outcomes for advanced-stage HL remain unsatisfactory. The International Prognostic Score and its modifications were developed to predict HL prognosis; however, more straightforward prognostic factors are needed. This study aimed to identify simpler prognostic factors for advanced-stage newly diagnosed HL (NDHL). Methods This retrospective study used the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database and the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Patients with advanced-stage NDHL receiving ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine) or ABVD-like regimens between 2009 and 2016 were enrolled. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify prognostic factors for the time to next treatment (TTNT) and overall survival (OS). We used the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to evaluate model performance. Results The study included 459 patients with advanced-stage NDHL. A bimodal age distribution (peaks 20-44 and >65 years) was observed. Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years, the complete remission and OS rates were 52% and 76%, respectively. Age ≥60 years (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-2.43), extranodal involvement (1.40, 1.05-1.87), B symptoms (1.53, 1.13-2.06), and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) ≥1 (1.49, 1.08-2.06) were significantly associated with a shorter TTNT. The time-dependent AUROC was .65. With a time-dependent AUROC of .81, age ≥60 years (4.55, 2.90-7.15) and CCI ≥1 (1.86, 1.18-2.91) were risk factors for worse OS. Conclusion Older age and more comorbidities were risk factors for an inferior OS in advanced-stage NDHL, while older age, extranodal involvement, B-symptoms, and higher CCI were significantly associated with disease relapse.