Full-coverage estimation of CO2 concentrations in China via multisource satellite data and Deep Forest model

Abstract

Abstract Monitoring China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is essential for formulating effective carbon cycle policies to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality. Despite insufficient satellite observation coverage, this study utilizes high-resolution spatiotemporal data from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), supplemented with various auxiliary datasets, to estimate full-coverage, monthly, column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) values across China from 2015 to 2022 at a spatial resolution of 0.05° via the deep forest model. The 10-fold cross-validation results indicate a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.95 and a determination coefficient (R²) of 0.90. Validation against ground-based station data yielded R values of 0.93, and R² values reached 0.81. Further validation from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Reanalysis dataset (CAMS) produced R² values of 0.87 and 0.80, respectively. During the study period, CO2 concentrations in China were higher in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, indicating a clear annual increase. The estimates generated by this study could potentially support CO2 monitoring in China.