How may the reduction of some cardiovascular diseases affect Brazilian population’s life expectancy?

Abstract

Abstract This study aimed to analyze the impact of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) on life expectancy (LE) in the Brazilian population; and to identify how the hypothetical reduction in mortality from 5 to 30%, as well as the hypothetical scenario with no deaths (i.e., elimination) of these diseases would affect LE. This is a simulation study using national cross-sectional data. To identify the impact of CVDs on LE, we used multiple decrement life table models, considering hypothetical CVDs reductions in mortality from 5 to 30% and their elimination. The estimated overall potential gains in LE [years (%)] from the elimination of ischemic disease, hypertensive disease, and cerebrovascular disease were 1.44y (2%) and 1.31y (1.7%), 0.51y (0.7%) and 0.75y (1%), and 1.28y (1.8%) and 1.62y (2.1%), for males and females, respectively. The largest gains in LE were observed among those who live in Brazil’s Northeast region. For the overall population, the estimated gains in LE linked to a 5% reduction in CVD mortality for males and females were 0.07y (0.1%) and 0.06y (0.08%) for ischemic disease, 0.02y (0.03%) and 0.04y (0.05%) for hypertensive disease, and 0.06y (0.08%) and 0.07y (0.09%) for cerebrovascular disease. A hypothetical decrease of 30% in mortality by CVDs would lead to gains in LE, for males and females, of 0.41y (0.6%) and 0.37y (0.5%) for ischemic disease, 0.15y (0.2%) and 0.22y (0.3%) for hypertensive disease, and 0.36y (0.5%) and 0.45y (0.6%) for cerebrovascular disease. Thus, investment towards improving CVDs, including CVD prevention efforts, would increase LE in Brazil, especially in less developed regions.

Keywords

• Hypertension
• Cardiovascular disease
• Ischemia
• Life expectancy
• Life tables
• Mortality
• Prevention
• Brazil