Satellite-Based Reconstruction of Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration over China Using a Hybrid CNN and Spatiotemporal Kriging Model

Abstract

Although atmospheric CO2 concentrations collected by satellites play a crucial role in understanding global greenhouse gases, the sparse geographic distribution greatly affects their widespread application. In this paper, a hybrid CNN and spatiotemporal Kriging (CNN-STK) model is proposed to generate a monthly spatiotemporal continuous XCO2 dataset over China at 0.25° grid-scale from 2015 to 2020, utilizing OCO-2 XCO2 and geographic covariates. The validations against observation samples, CAMS XCO2 and TCCON measurements indicate the CNN-STK model is effective, robust, and reliable with high accuracy (validation set metrics: R2 = 0.936, RMSE = 1.3 ppm, MAE = 0.946 ppm; compared with TCCON: R2 = 0.954, RMSE = 0.898 ppm and MAE = 0.741 ppm). The accuracy of CNN-STK XCO2 exhibits spatial inhomogeneity, with higher accuracy in northern China during spring, autumn, and winter and lower accuracy in northeast China during summer. XCO2 in low-value-clustering areas is notably influenced by biological activities. Moreover, relatively high uncertainties are observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Sichuan Basin. This study innovatively integrates deep learning with the geostatistical method, providing a stable and cost-effective approach for other countries and regions to obtain regional scales of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, thereby supporting policy formulation and actions to address climate change.

Keywords

• XCO2
• CNN model
• spatiotemporal Kriging
• TCCON
• spatial inhomogeneity
• greenhouse gases