The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific (Aug 2024)

One-size-fits-all versus risk-category-based screening interval strategies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Chinese adults: a prospective cohort studyResearch in context

  • Zhijia Sun,
  • Yu Ma,
  • Canqing Yu,
  • Dianjianyi Sun,
  • Yuanjie Pang,
  • Pei Pei,
  • Ling Yang,
  • Yiping Chen,
  • Huaidong Du,
  • Hao Zhang,
  • Xiaoming Yang,
  • Maxim Barnard,
  • Robert Clarke,
  • Junshi Chen,
  • Zhengming Chen,
  • Liming Li,
  • Jun Lv,
  • Junshi Chen,
  • Zhengming Chen,
  • Robert Clarke,
  • Rory Collins,
  • Liming Li,
  • Jun Lv,
  • Richard Peto,
  • Robin Walters,
  • Daniel Avery,
  • Maxim Barnard,
  • Derrick Bennett,
  • Lazaros Belbasis,
  • Ruth Boxall,
  • Ka Hung Chan,
  • Yiping Chen,
  • Zhengming Chen,
  • Charlotte Clarke,
  • Johnathan Clarke,
  • Robert Clarke,
  • Huaidong Du,
  • Ahmed Edris Mohamed,
  • Hannah Fry,
  • Simon Gilbert,
  • Pek Kei Im,
  • Andri Iona,
  • Maria Kakkoura,
  • Christiana Kartsonaki,
  • Hubert Lam,
  • Kuang Lin,
  • James Liu,
  • Mohsen Mazidi,
  • Iona Millwood,
  • Sam Morris,
  • Qunhua Nie,
  • Alfred Pozarickij,
  • Maryanm Rahmati,
  • Paul Ryder,
  • Saredo Said,
  • Dan Schmidt,
  • Becky Stevens,
  • Iain Turnbull,
  • Robin Walters,
  • Baihan Wang,
  • Lin Wang,
  • Neil Wright,
  • Ling Yang,
  • Xiaoming Yang,
  • Pang Yao,
  • Xiao Han,
  • Can Hou,
  • Qingmei Xia,
  • Chao Liu,
  • Jun Lv,
  • Pei Pei,
  • Dianjianyi Sun,
  • Canqing Yu,
  • Lang Pan,
  • Zengchang Pang,
  • Ruqin Gao,
  • Shanpeng Li,
  • Haiping Duan,
  • Shaojie Wang,
  • Yongmei Liu,
  • Ranran Du,
  • Yajing Zang,
  • Liang Cheng,
  • Xiaocao Tian,
  • Hua Zhang,
  • Yaoming Zhai,
  • Feng Ning,
  • Xiaohui Sun,
  • Feifei Li,
  • Silu Lv,
  • Junzheng Wang,
  • Wei Hou,
  • Wei Sun,
  • Shichun Yan,
  • Xiaoming Cui,
  • Chi Wang,
  • Zhenyuan Wu,
  • Yanjie Li,
  • Quan Kang,
  • Huiming Luo,
  • Tingting Ou,
  • Xiangyang Zheng,
  • Zhendong Guo,
  • Shukuan Wu,
  • Yilei Li,
  • Huimei Li,
  • Ming Wu,
  • Yonglin Zhou,
  • Jinyi Zhou,
  • Ran Tao,
  • Jie Yang,
  • Jian Su. Fang Liu,
  • Jun Zhang,
  • Yihe Hu,
  • Yan Lu,
  • Liangcai Ma,
  • Aiyu Tang,
  • Shuo Zhang,
  • Jianrong Jin,
  • Jingchao Liu,
  • Mei Lin,
  • Zhenzhen Lu,
  • Lifang Zhou,
  • Changping Xie,
  • Jian Lan,
  • Tingping Zhu,
  • Yun Liu,
  • Liuping Wei,
  • Liyuan Zhou,
  • Ningyu Chen,
  • Yulu Qin,
  • Sisi Wang,
  • Xianping Wu,
  • Ningmei Zhang,
  • Xiaofang Chen,
  • Xiaoyu Chang,
  • Mingqiang Yuan,
  • Xia Wu,
  • Xiaofang Chen,
  • Wei Jiang,
  • Jiaqiu Liu,
  • Qiang Sun,
  • Faqing Chen,
  • Xiaolan Ren,
  • Caixia Dong,
  • Hui Zhang,
  • Enke Mao,
  • Xiaoping Wang,
  • Tao Wang,
  • Xi Zhang,
  • Kai Kang,
  • Shixian Feng,
  • Huizi Tian,
  • Lei Fan,
  • XiaoLin Li,
  • Huarong Sun,
  • Pan He,
  • Xukui Zhang,
  • Min Yu,
  • Ruying Hu,
  • Hao Wang,
  • Xiaoyi Zhang,
  • Yuan Cao,
  • Kaixu Xie,
  • Lingli Chen,
  • Dun Shen,
  • Xiaojun Li,
  • Donghui Jin,
  • Li Yin,
  • Huilin Liu,
  • Zhongxi Fu,
  • Xin Xu,
  • Hao Zhang,
  • Jianwei Chen,
  • Yuan Peng,
  • Libo Zhang,
  • Chan Qu

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 49
p. 101140

Abstract

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Summary: Background: In non-high-risk individuals, risk-category-based atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) screening strategies may be more cost-effective than one-size-fits-all approaches. However, current decisions are constrained by a lack of research evidence. We aimed to explore appropriate risk-category-based screening interval strategies for non-high-risk individuals in ASCVD primary prevention in the Chinese population. Methods: We used data from 28,624 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who had completed at least two field surveys. The risk assessment tools were the 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed based on the CKB cohort. We constructed multistate Markov models to model disease progression and estimate transition probabilities between different risk categories. The total person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk state over a 10-year period were calculated for each screening interval protocol. We also estimated the number of ASCVD events prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs saved when compared to the 3-yearly screening protocol. Findings: When compared to the uniform 3-yearly protocol, most risk-category-based screening interval protocols would identify more high-risk individuals timely, thus preventing more ASCVD events and gaining QALYs. A few of them would reduce total health-care costs. The protocol, which used 6-year, 3-year, and 2-year screening intervals for low-risk, intermediate-low-risk, and intermediate-high risk individuals, was optimal, and would reduce the person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk category by 17.9% (95% CI: 13.1%–21.9%), thus preventing an estimated 113 thousand (95% CI: 83–138) hard ASCVD events for Chinese adults aged 30–79 over a 10-year period. When using a lower cost of statin therapy, more screening protocols would gain QALYs while saving costs. Interpretation: For the primary prevention of ASCVD, risk-category-based screening protocols outperformed the one-size-fits-all approach in the Chinese population. Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82388102, 82192900) and grants (2023YFC2509400) from the National Key R&D Program of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303, 81941018), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01).

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