BUSINESS, RELIGION AND ERDOĞAN: INFLUENCE OPERATIONS OF TÜRKIYE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Abstract

The text analyses Türkiye’s influence operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and their implications for the internal situation and the EU’s interests. Turkish activities are analysed in the fields of diplomacy, public diplomacy, information operations, economic operations, and clandestine and military operations using an updated RAND model. The article argues that Türkiye adopts a pragmatic approach, prioritising economic ties and carefully tailoring narratives for diverse audiences in the country. This approach enables Ankara to maintain constructive relations with representatives of the three main ethnic groups and act as a mediator during Bosnia and Herzegovina’s internal crises and the EU’s diminishing presence. However, as Turkish relations with local actors are mainly Erdoğan-centric and personalised, there are also potential risks and challenges. These encompass corruption, the erosion of democratic institutions, the exportation of Türkiye’s internal issues to Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the undermining of the EU’s influence in the country.

Keywords

• türkiye
• influence
• operations
• bosnia and herzegovina
• republika srpska
• diplomacy
• erdoğan