PERKIRAAN POLA MIGRASI ANTAR PROVINSI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN DEMOGRAFI-EKONOMI

Abstract

The difference in the level of welfare among regions was an impeller factor for people to migrate. Data from the Population Census in 2010 showed that the province’s largest destination of migrants were West Java, DKI Jakarta and Banten. The purposes of this study is to observe how many the migrate response due to the differences in the level of welfare among the provinces in Indonesia, and to calculate the probability of migration for each province. The research method used in this study is Demographic-Economic Approach (Issermen et al, 1985), and then modified with using limited data in Indonesia. Economic variables used in this study are Ratio of Minimum Provincial Wage/ Decent Living Needs (UMP/KHL), Gini Index, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) per capita. The results show that economic attractiveness value for variable of UMP/KHL ratio which is 0.2501 (significant), variable of Gini index is -0.0730 (insignificant), and PDRB per capita is 0.2742 (significant). The tendency of migrations among the provinces in Indonesia is still dominated by the migrants from Java and Bali Islands. The other result shows that people in DI Yogyakarta Province have a tendency not to perform migration.

Keywords

• migration
• demographic-economic approach
• economic attractiveness
• tendency of migration