Global burden trends and forecasts for MAFLD in adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021

Abstract

Abstract Metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a widespread chronic liver condition that has been steadily increasing among adolescents and young adults in recent years, posing a major global public health concern. This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data on MAFLD, focusing on prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for individuals aged 15–39, spanning the period from 1990 to 2021. This research examines data from the GBD study covering 1990 to 2021 to assess the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs associated with of MAFLD in adolescents and young adults aged 15–39. The analysis is broken down by socioeconomic status, geographic regions, and specific countries. Advanced statistical methods, including the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling, were used to deliver the most current and thorough epidemiological assessment of MAFLD in this demographic. In 2021, the estimated global cases of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among adolescents and young adults reached approximately 423 million, representing a 75.31% increase from 1990. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 14,221.32 cases per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 977.61 cases per 100,000 population in 2021. Between 1990 and 2021, the ASPR, ASIR, age-standardized DALY rate, and age-standardized mortality rate showed a continuous upward trend, with EAPC of 0.84, 0.79, 0.65, and 0.81, respectively. Regions with Middle and Low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), as well as High-middle SDI, emerged as “hotspots” for MAFLD prevalence, particularly in North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia. Males exhibited higher prevalence rates compared to females, and the rates continued to increase across all adolescents and young adult age groups. By 2050, the ASPR for MAFLD among this population is projected to reach 16,101 cases per 100,000, signaling an alarming trend. Over the last 30 years, the burden of metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease has significantly increased among adolescents and young adults worldwide. To counter this rising global health concern, it is crucial to develop and implement targeted and effective interventions tailored to socio-economic settings.

Keywords

• Global Burden of Disease (GBD)
• Metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD)
• Adolescents and young adults
• MAFLD in youth
• Systematic analysis