Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Tourism Revenues, Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of Morocco and South Africa

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between international tourism revenues, inflation rates and economic growth of Morocco and South Africa between. The Multiple Linear Regression Model was used to measure whether there is a significant relationship between dependent and independent variables and how the variables affect economic growth. The data used in the analysis were obtained from the World Bank and include annual data. During the analysis process, a series of assumption tests were made to reveal the significance of the model. The model was established by taking the logarithm of the dependent variable. The VIF test was used to measure that the independent variables were not related to each other, the Breusch-Godfrey LM test was applied to examine whether there was autocorrelation between the error terms, and the Shapiro-Wilk W test, which was another assumption, was applied to measure the normal distribution of the error terms. As a result of the latest multiple linear regression analysis, it was determined that there was a significant relationship between the variables of both countries. In both countries, the increase in international tourism revenues affects economic growth positively, but the increase in inflation affects economic growth negatively.

Keywords

• gdp
• tourism
• economic growth
• inflation