Assessing the effects of combined future climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow in the Upper Fen River Basin, China

Abstract

Study region: Tributaries of the Yellow River, Upper Fen River Basin, China. Study focus: The current research analyzed the streamflow changes resulting from interactions between climate and land use/cover (LULC) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The study utilized six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset as forcing inputs for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. This study aims to quantitatively access the alone and combined effects of climate and LULC changes on future streamflow. New hydrologic insights for the region: The change in future streamflow under the combined effect of climate and LULC exceeded the change observed under the influence of climate or LULC alone in the Fenhe Reservoir Hydrological Station Control Basin (FRCB). The contributions were 72.5 % (SSP126), 73.1 % (SSP245), and 77.2 % (SSP585), respectively. Climate change showed a stronger correlation with future streamflow than LULC changes. Precipitation had the most direct effect on streamflow among the meteorological factors. The expansion of urban land contributes to an increase in streamflow in the source area and southwest tributaries of the FRCB to some extent. The future streamflow will gradually increase in mid-century (2045–2066) under low to high SSP. Adapting effective strategies for the FRCB, can be helpful in water resources planning and management.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Land use/cover change
• Streamflow simulation
• Multiple scenarios
• Uncertainty