Are Lockdown Measures Effective Against COVID-19?

Abstract

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As the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic progresses, countries around the world are increasingly implementing a range of responses that are intended to help prevent the transmission of this disease. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of containment measures to suppress the virus transmission, thereby slowing down the growth rate of cases and rapidly reducing case incidence. The aim of this study is to show that country lockdown has a critical and significant impact on the pandemic. This is explored using real time incidence data in Lebanon. We analyze COVID-19 cases in Lebanon before and after lockdown measures have been implemented. The findings show that the nationwide lockdown was effective in reducing cases and has been successful in, so far, containing the virus. This study could be an evidence-based call to continue with the lockdown measures, based on real time incidence data. Further research is encouraged.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• lockdown measures
• Poisson regression model
• modeling
• Lebanon