The Quantification and Tracing of Leakage in the Forest Sector in Nordic Countries

Abstract

This study examines production leakage in four Nordic countries and its impact on industries and the global market. Using a Forest Sector Model, we analyze the effects of changing the harvest and find the leakage of roundwood harvest to range from 61% to 76% in Norway, 59% to 81% in Sweden, 57% to 89% in Finland, and 59% to 106% in Denmark. Notably, trade with other parts of the world absorbs over 50% of roundwood harvest changes in a Nordic country, with Norway exhibiting distinct trade patterns compared to Finland and Sweden. Compared to prior findings, sawnwood production leakage is smaller, underscoring the necessity for the refined modeling of non-Nordic countries. Importantly, our findings contribute insights into forest industries, leakage, and global trade dynamics, relevant to the Nordic context and having broader implications for globally interconnected countries.

Keywords

• market leakage
• forest sector modeling
• partial equilibrium model