Assessing the Uncertainties of Simulation Approaches for Solar Thermal Systems Coupled to Industrial Processes
José M. Cardemil,
Ignacio Calderón-Vásquez,
Alan Pino,
Allan Starke,
Ian Wolde,
Carlos Felbol,
Leonardo F. L. Lemos,
Vinicius Bonini,
Ignacio Arias,
Javier Iñigo-Labairu,
Jürgen Dersch,
Rodrigo Escobar
Affiliations
José M. Cardemil
Department of Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, Chile
Ignacio Calderón-Vásquez
Department of Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, Chile
Alan Pino
Department of Energy Engineering, University of Seville, 41092 Sevilla, Spain
Allan Starke
LEPTEN—Laboratory of Energy Conversion Engineering and Energy Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis 88040-900, Brazil
Ian Wolde
Department of Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, Chile
Carlos Felbol
Center for Solar Energy Technologies, Fraunhofer Chile Research, Santiago 8580704, Chile
Leonardo F. L. Lemos
LEPTEN—Laboratory of Energy Conversion Engineering and Energy Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis 88040-900, Brazil
Vinicius Bonini
LEPTEN—Laboratory of Energy Conversion Engineering and Energy Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis 88040-900, Brazil
Ignacio Arias
Department of Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, Chile
Javier Iñigo-Labairu
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Solar Research, Linder Höhe, 51147 Köln, Germany
Jürgen Dersch
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Solar Research, Linder Höhe, 51147 Köln, Germany
Rodrigo Escobar
Department of Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, Chile
Industrial energy accounts for a large percentage of global consumption and, thus, it is a target for decarbonization by renewable and in particular solar energy adoption. Low uncertainty simulation tools can reduce the financial risk of solar projects, fostering the transition to a sustainable energy system. Several simulation tools are readily available to developers; differences exist in the format of input data and complexity of physical and numerical models. These tools can provide a variety of results from technical to financial and sensitivity analysis, often producing significant differences in yield assessment and uncertainty levels. IEA SHC Task 64/SolarPACES Task IV—Subtask C aims to address the lack of standard simulation tools for Solar Heating of Industrial Processes (SHIP) plants. This article describes the collaborative work developed by the researchers participating in the task. The identification and classification of several currently available simulation tools are performed on the basis of their capabilities and simulation approaches. A case study of solar heat supply to a copper mining operation is defined, allowing a comparison of the results produced by equivalent simulation tools. The proposed methodology identifies the main sources of differences among the simulation tools, the assessment of the deviation considering a series of statistical metrics for different time scales, and identifies their limitations and bias. The effects of physical characteristics of SHIP plants and different simulation approaches are discussed and quantified. The obtained results allow us to develop a basic guideline for a standardized yield assessment procedure with known uncertainties. Creating this common framework could partially reduce the risk perceived by the finance industry regarding SHIP systems.
