Demographic transitions hinder climate change mitigation for Japan’s shrinking and aging households

Abstract

Summary: The household sector is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is key to achieving decarbonization targets. Household characteristics, influenced by demographic transitions such as population aging and shrinking, have a profound impact on energy use and emissions. This study explores how demographic changes in Japan may affect long-term emission mitigation in the household sector through the adoption of photovoltaics (PVs) and new energy vehicles (NEVs) under various scenarios for 2040. Using a comprehensive survey of 9,996 households, we develop a nuanced typology of households to understand variations in emissions and mitigation technology adoption. Household size and age emerge as key factors influencing emissions. The findings reveal that the increasing prevalence of smaller and elderly households may impede emission mitigation efforts in Japan, posing substantial obstacles to achieving long-term decarbonization goals in the household sector. Science for society: In the quest for a sustainable future, understanding the relationship between demographic change and climate change becomes paramount, as demographic shifts directly impact energy consumption patterns and the effectiveness of interventions. This study reveals how demographic transitions in Japan influence household-level energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Different household types exhibit varied patterns in emissions and the adoption of green technologies such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles. This is shaped by factors such as people’s age, household size, and income. Demographic transitions toward smaller and elderly households will complicate achieving decarbonization in the household sector. The work emphasizes that a sustainable, low-carbon future requires a deep understanding of societal shifts and needs. It calls for tailored approaches in the household sector to manage climate change, particularly in societies experiencing demographic transitions.

Keywords

• aging society
• demographic transition
• emission characteristics
• carbon mitigation
• data mining