Climate change diminishes the potential habitat of the bont tick (Amblyomma hebraeum): evidence from Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe

Abstract

Abstract Background Understanding the response of vector habitats to climate change is essential for vector management. Increasingly, there is fear that climate change may cause vectors to be more important for animal husbandry in the future. Therefore, knowledge about the current and future spatial distribution of vectors, including ticks (Ixodida), is progressively becoming more critical to animal disease control. Methods Our study produced present (2018) and future (2050) bont tick (Amblyomma hebraeum) niche models for Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe. Specifically, our approach used the Ensemble algorithm in Biomod2 package in R 3.4.4 with a suite of physical and anthropogenic covariates against the tick’s presence-only location data obtained from cattle dipping facilities. Results Our models showed that currently (the year 2018) the bont tick potentially occurs in 17,008 km2, which is 60% of Mashonaland Central Province. However, the models showed that in the future (the year 2050), the bont tick will occur in 13,323 km2, which is 47% of Mashonaland Central Province. Thus, the models predicted an ~ 13% reduction in the potential habitat, about 3685 km2 of the study area. Temperature, elevation and rainfall were the most important variables explaining the present and future potential habitat of the bont tick. Conclusion Results of our study are essential in informing programmes that seek to control the bont tick in Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe and similar environments. Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Area under the curve (ROC)
• Climate change
• Ensemble modelling
• True skill statistic (TSS)
• Variance inflation factor (VIF)