Journal of Glaciology (Dec 2020)
Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)
- Sainan Sun,
- Frank Pattyn,
- Erika G. Simon,
- Torsten Albrecht,
- Stephen Cornford,
- Reinhard Calov,
- Christophe Dumas,
- Fabien Gillet-Chaulet,
- Heiko Goelzer,
- Nicholas R. Golledge,
- Ralf Greve,
- Matthew J. Hoffman,
- Angelika Humbert,
- Elise Kazmierczak,
- Thomas Kleiner,
- Gunter R. Leguy,
- William H. Lipscomb,
- Daniel Martin,
- Mathieu Morlighem,
- Sophie Nowicki,
- David Pollard,
- Stephen Price,
- Aurélien Quiquet,
- Hélène Seroussi,
- Tanja Schlemm,
- Johannes Sutter,
- Roderik S. W. van de Wal,
- Ricarda Winkelmann,
- Tong Zhang
Affiliations
- Sainan Sun
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
- Frank Pattyn
- ORCiD
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
- Erika G. Simon
- NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt MD, USA
- Torsten Albrecht
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Stephen Cornford
- Department of Geography, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
- Reinhard Calov
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Christophe Dumas
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
- ORCiD
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, 38000 Grenoble, France
- Heiko Goelzer
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
- Nicholas R. Golledge
- Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
- Ralf Greve
- ORCiD
- Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Matthew J. Hoffman
- ORCiD
- Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM, USA
- Angelika Humbert
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholz-Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
- Elise Kazmierczak
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
- Thomas Kleiner
- ORCiD
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholz-Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
- Gunter R. Leguy
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, USA
- William H. Lipscomb
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, USA
- Daniel Martin
- ORCiD
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley CA, USA
- Mathieu Morlighem
- ORCiD
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA
- Sophie Nowicki
- NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt MD, USA
- David Pollard
- Pennsylvania State University, EMS Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania, USA
- Stephen Price
- Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM, USA
- Aurélien Quiquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Hélène Seroussi
- ORCiD
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA
- Tanja Schlemm
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476, Potsdam, Germany
- Johannes Sutter
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholz-Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Roderik S. W. van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
- Ricarda Winkelmann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476, Potsdam, Germany
- Tong Zhang
- Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM, USA
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.67
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 66
pp. 891 – 904
Abstract
Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.
Keywords
