Substantial Overestimation of Terrestrial Water Storage Loss in Headwater Basins on Earth's Third Pole

Abstract

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is suffering from a substantial decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in exorheic basins, threatening water resources that are critical for ∼2 billion people downstream. TWS changes are commonly estimated using gravity satellites through observations of the total terrestrial mass storage (TMS) change, with an implicit assumption of a negligible contribution from sediment transport. Through long‐term (2002–2017) sediment flux observations in seven headwater basins on the TP, we reveal that the gravity satellite‐derived TMS has decreased at a rate of 3.85 ± 0.23 Gt yr−1 in the seven basins, of which 0.35 ± 0.04 Gt yr−1 is contributed by sediment transport. Neglecting this contribution leads to an overestimation of the TWS loss by 10.1 ± 1.3%, equivalent to the annual water demand of an additional 0.62 million people in the surrounding nations. Regionally, the overestimation is surprisingly high in the Indus River and Yarkant River basins, reaching up to 50.8%–77.6%.