MODELING AND FORECASTING THE NEEDS FOR INFORMATION SUPPORT OF THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM OF ALGERIA

Abstract

Background. Algeria's healthcare system, like that of other countries, has undergone significant changes over the past decades. Financing flows, population size, life expectancy of citizens have changed. At the same time, the requirements for information support have grown: mobile accessibility, format and security of data storage, cloud storage and cloud computing. Therefore, the authors set out to make short-term forecasts of the main socioeconomic indicators of Algeria and to offer forward estimates of the amount of personal health data needed for the country in the coming years. In addition, the authors offered recommendations on the choice of cryptographic algorithms for secure work with personal data from cloud storage. Materials and methods. The statistical data of Algeria from official sources and scientific publications, data on the speed of mobile cryptographic computations of their scientific publications are used. The methods of correlation-regression analysis, the method of constructing the Box- Jenkins model for the time series were used. Results. Mathematical models, model adequacy checks and forecasting results are presented. Conclusions. Estimates of the volume of confidential medical information in the coming years are given, which serve to develop plans for the development of the country's information infrastructure, as well as recommendations for choosing a method for cryptographic closing of mobile data.

Keywords

• time series model
• health care in algeria
• medical personal data
• cloud data storage