Implication of cereal production and intra-food trade to agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The supply-demand balance of cereals in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries left a gap that needs to be bridged by growth-inclusive agricultural production. Agricultural growth failed to keep pace with the population growth resulting from low technology adoption, mechanization, reduced yield, food loss/waste, trade barrier and distortion, low investment, and tenure security. This study investigates the impact of cereal production and intra-food trade on agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, utilising a cross-sectional panel dataset of 48 countries from 1986 – 2021. Employing the Im-Pesaran-Shin unit root tests, pairwise correlation analysis, and random effects regression modeling, the study reveals that cereal production significantly contributes to agricultural growth by 0.8 %. In comparison, intra-food trade positively and significantly influences agricultural growth by 2.5 %. The result shows that cereal production positively affects agriculture growth, while intra-food trade and population growth negate the hypothesis of trade-led agricultural growth. Conclusively, the study recommended lifting trade barriers, developing trade-driven policies, encouraging agriculture exports, and expanding free trade agreements within the region.

Keywords

• agricultural land
• cereals
• supply
• technology
• trend
• production
• population growth