The tragic future of a ‘many russias’ hypothesis. Foresight and scenarios | O future trágico de uma hipotética ‘muitas rússias’. Previsões e cenários

Abstract

Under international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine must be ensured in accordance with the collectively agreed 1991 borders. Should the Russian Federation collapse, the Wider West and particularly Europe, should manage a stable sphere of military security on the Continent and a better articulation of North America and beyond it. A Russian defeat in Ukraine creates opportunities as well as risks. Trusting that a defeated Kremlin will abandon its imperial designs could be a mistake. In this article, we have drawn out several prospective scenarios to which we assign different degrees of probability.

Keywords

• Territorial integrity
• defeat
• scenarios
• opportunities
• challenges
• Wider West