Gaoyuan qixiang (Feb 2025)
Characteristics of the Main Factors Affecting Prolonged Spring-summer Extreme Drought Events in Northern Drought-prone Belt
Abstract
Purposes Methods Extreme weather and climate events have been exhibiting an intensification under global warming.This intensified extremity thus augments the damaging impacts on both society and the economy.In the Northern Drought-prone Belt （NDPB）， extreme drought events are becoming more frequent and more intense with a broader distribution.In this study， by using statistical analysis and composite analysis， characteristics of the main factors affecting prolonged spring-summer extreme drought events in NDPB are analyzed based on the meteorological drought composite index， precipitation and near-surface air temperature data observed by meteorological stations， reanalysis dataset， sea surface temperature， snow cover， and the sea ice concentration data.Findings Conclusions Results show that the main circulation factors are as follows： the eastward propagating wave trains from Baffin Bay in March， a “positive-negative-positive-negative-positive-negative” geopotential height anomaly from the south of Hudson Bay to the east of Lake Baikal in May， an eastward wave train near the 60°N latitude， the Silk Road wave train and the eastward， weak Western Pacific Subtropical High in June； the main external forcing factors are listed below： the phase transition from La Niña to El Niño， warmer sea surface temperature over the Indian Ocean basin and the central North Atlantic； the shrinking snow cover in the mid-to-high latitudes of Eurasia and between 40°N and 60°N of North America， a snow cover reversal from abnormally high to abnormally low over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau， a “negative-positive” sea ice concentration anomaly with less near Baffin Bay and Davis Strait but more near Greenland Sea， and a “positive-negative-positive” sea ice concentration anomaly from the Barents Sea to the Kara Sea.
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