Simulation of Structural Changes in the Region’s Economy Based on the Matrix of Financial Flows

Abstract

The article is devoted to the improvement of instruments assessing the impact of exogenous factors on the structure of the regional economy. In distinction from previous studies, the analysis is carried out not only on the basis of short-term multiplier effect, but also changes the values of multipliers, demonstrating the sensitivity / elasticity of the economic system in the region to exogenous influences in the long term. Structural changes are analyzed by the example of assessing the impact of the financial measures of the state policy of import substitution. The article presents a method of estimating the multiplicative effects, based on the balance sheet approach and the methodology of the system of national accounts. A distinctive feature of the methodology is to reflect the reproductive structures of institutional sectors in the region in relation to the import and export flows. On an example of the Sverdlovsk Oblast the authors demonstrate the possibility of using methods in predicting changes in key economic indicators in the region (wages, gross profit, tax revenues of the consolidated regional budget, final consumption expenditure, etc.). On the basis of the updated matrix of cash flows, three scenarios for structural change are calculated, in the region’s economy, they determine various changes in the multipliers. The developed method makes it possible, first, to assess the direct and indirect economic effects arising in the implementation of government measures on import substitution; second, to analyze the effectiveness of import substitution programs, taking into account the features of the reproductive structure of the region, and thus to identify the sector that will provide the greatest multiplier economic effect; and third, to improve the objectivity of comparing the financial costs and benefits associated with the implementation of import substitution measures, the potential benefits of investing these funds in alternative projects. The results can be used in further studies on the effectiveness of implementation of the state policy of import substitution and modernization of the economy of the Russian Federation

Keywords

• regional development
• modernization
• import substitution
• multiplicative effects
• matrix of financial flows
• scenario modelling