Prognostic nomogram on admission predicting progression for patients with nonsevere COVID-19

Abstract

The present study aimed to establish a prognostic nomogram to stratify high-risk patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) who progressed from the nonsevere condition on admission to severe during hospitalization. This multicenter retrospective study included patients with nonsevere COVID-19 on admission from Jan 10, 2020 to Feb 7, 2020. In the training cohort, independent risk factors associated with disease progression were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. The prognostic nomogram was established and then validated externally using C-index. The study included 351 patients (293 and 58 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively), with 27 (9.2%) and 5 (8.6%) patients progressed, respectively. In the training cohort, older age (OR 1.036, 95% CI 1.000–1.073), more lobes involved on chest CT (OR 1.841, 95% CI 1.117–3.035), comorbidity present (OR 2.478, 95% CI 1.020–6.018), and lower lymphocyte count (OR 0.081, 95% CI 0.019–0.349) were identified as independent risk factors. The prognostic nomogram was established in the training cohort with satisfied external prognostic performance (C-index 0.906, 95% CI 0.806–1.000). In conclusion, older age, comorbidity present, more lobes involved on chest CT, and lower lymphocyte count are independent risk factors associated with disease progression during hospitalization for patients with nonsevere COVID-19.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Severe disease
• Progression
• Nomogram
• Risk factor