Prediction and analysis of domestic water consumption based on optimized grey and Markov model

Abstract

With the rapid development of urbanization and the continuous improvement of living standards, China's domestic water consumption shows a growing trend. However, in some arid and water deficient areas, the shortage of water resources is a crucial factor affecting regional economic development and population growth. Therefore, it is essential to reliably predict the future water consumption data of a region. Aiming at the problems of poor prediction accuracy and overfitting of non-growth series in traditional grey prediction, this paper uses residual grey model combined with Markov chain correction to predict domestic water consumption. Based on the traditional grey theory prediction, the residual grey prediction model is established. Combined with the Markov state transition matrix, the grey prediction value is modified, and the model is applied to the prediction of domestic water consumption in Shaanxi Province from 2003 to 2019. The fitting results show that the accuracy grade of the improved residual grey prediction model is “good”. This shows that the dynamic unbiased grey Markov model can eliminate the inherent error of the traditional grey GM (1,1) model, improve the prediction accuracy, have better reliability, and can provide a new method for water consumption prediction. HIGHLIGHTS The prediction model of water resources is established.; The method of combining grey model with Markov model is put forward.; The modified method has a good prediction effect and application value.;

Keywords

• grey model
• markov chain
• optimization algorithm
• state transition matrix
• water consumption prediction