Response of Government Revenue and Spending to Budgetary Disequilibrium in Iran

Abstract

The relationship between government spending and revenue during the budgetary disequilibrium can be considered as an important issue in public sector economics. This issue is of high importance in Iran, which oil revenue is the main source of government revenue. The aim of this study is to examine the response of government revenue and spending to budgetary disequilibrium in Iran using a three-variate model, accounting for oil revenue and testing the asymmetry of adjustment process during 1990-2016. The results support the tax-spending hypothesis for Iran. However, according to the long run relationship, the results show that oil revenue stimulates the government to spend more and to collect less tax, which confirms tax displacement hypothesis. ‏Moreover, when the government faces a budget deficit, only government spending responds to budgetary disequilibrium. According to the findings, Iran should reduce its oil-dependence and improve its tax collection system in order to reduce budget deficit.

Keywords

• government expenditure
• tax revenue
• oil revenue
• threshold cointegration
• asymmetric error correction model