Methodology for the Selection of Risk Response Actions while Considering Corporate Objectives in the Metalworking Industry

Abstract

Context: Projects in metalworking companies are affected by risk. Proper risk management depends on the responses provided to improve the project plan. However, multiple potential actions may result in constraints due to multiple factors. The purpose of this article is to propose a hybrid approach to solve the problem of selecting risk response actions while considering strategic objectives, fuzzy logic, and simulation. Method: First, 334 risks were identified through a literature review and a discussion with experts. These were then filtered, resulting in 70 operational risks. Subsequently, the ten critical risks were prioritized using the risk matrix. Then, using Monte Carlo simulation and correlation analysis, the activities most affected by the risks were identified. Finally, potential response actions were designed for each case, and fuzzy logic and quality function deployment were applied to evaluate them. Results: The selected responses were framed within the strategic objectives, i.e., customer satisfaction, business profitability, and implementation of new technologies. This, while considering some corporate attributes that the actions had to meet finishing the project on time, having low costs, and meeting the scope. The selected actions had a better profile than others seeking to minimize time or costs. Conclusions: EPCC projects are complex and often suffer from gaps in scope, time, and cost. Risk analysis and the selection of responses in the planning phase help to improve performance. This study developed a risk response plan for a project executed in Brazil. Risks were identified, classified, and mitigated using simulations, resulting in an 11-day reduction in the project’s estimated duration.

Keywords

• fuzzy logic
• monte carlo simulation
• project risk management
• risk response actions