Identifying Key Factors Affecting Regional Development with a Foresight Approach (Case study: Ardabil province)

Abstract

Regional planning is a collaborative effort for policymaking, organizing, exploitation and optimal use of regional resources and potentials, in accordance with needs and priorities, to raise the living standards of regional people with the help of regional institutions and structures. This study aimed to identify driving factors in regional development of Ardabil province. The study was done in three stages. The first stage was obtaining information from high-level documents and obtaining the opinions of 30 experts by using Delphi survey technique. The main driving factors of development were investigated in 9 areas and 50 factors were identified. In the second stage, using the cross-impact matrix, the identified factors were scored and completed by 30 experts, senior experts and specialists who were well-informed about the province's development issues. In the third stage, by using MICMAC software, the most key effective factors in the regional development of this province were identified. The results showed that among the 50 main variables, 14 variables, which had the highest score, were the key variables driving regional development in Ardabil province. Drawing the attention of planners and executive agents of the province to main roads, changes in the management style of the province, the transit network, and reforming the planning of the province can enhance the prosperity of people in Ardabil province.

Keywords

• 'key development factors'
• 'regional development
• 'ardabil province'
• 'foresight'
• 'micmac'