Impact of Macro Indicators on Istanbul Stock Exchange During Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This research analyses the effects of the macro indicators like credit default swap, exchange rate, oil prices and gold prices on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST100 Index) during the Covid-19 period by applying vector autoregressive model. In the model, daily data of the indicators are considered. The analysis comprises of two periods: pre-Covid-19 period (first week of 2019 to last week of 2020) and the during Covid-19 period (first week of 2020 to the second week of 2021). The comparison of two periods determines whether Covid-19 influence the impact of macro indicators on Borsa Istanbul. The findings reveal that in the pre-Covid-19 period, the volatility in BIST100 is explained mainly by gold prices. Credit default swap, oil prices and exchange rate affected BIST100 negatively, while gold prices had a positive impact on the Index. In the Covid-19 period, the impact of credit default swap and oil prices on BIST100 increased. A negative relationship is observed between BIST100 Index and the gold prices. A positive relationship is found between BIST100 and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the exchange rate had a greater impact on BIST100 than the impact observed in the pre-Covid period.

Keywords

• credit default swap
• exchange rate
• oil prices
• stock market
• var analysis
• kredi temerrüt takası
• döviz kuru
• petrol fiyatları
• borsa
• var analizi