Estimation of Aggregate Expectations of Economic Agents by Using Derivatives

Abstract

Macroeconomic theories based on expectations of economic agents appeared at the end of the last century. There are various ways of defining these expectations, and in this paper we propose to estimate the economic expectations on the basis of official data about transactions in derivative financial instruments. Using data of trades on the Moscow stock exchange were analyzed arbitrage strategy spot-futures and futures-futures for the purpose of estimating inflation expectations of investors. To assess suggestions about the stability of the economy were considered options on futures on the RTS index and the volatility index, and the instability in some commodity markets is proposed to evaluate the open interest on futures.

Keywords

• derivatives
• arbitrage trading strategies
• inflationary expectations