Modeling of the Risk of Forest Fires for the Andean Community Picol Orcompugio, Cusco – Peru

Abstract

The risk of wildfire is common in different regions of Peru, only in the Cusco region until October of 2022 there were 10 active fires (COER, 2022), the effects of them play a role in the dynamics of the ecosystems decimating the ecosystem services that in turn affect the economy in the area. The most common origin of these forest fires is the use of agricultural burning as a tool to clear and prepare the soil, furthermore, other wildfires are originated for the weather conditions because the effects of global warming on the patterns of rainfall and solar incidence (Armenteras et al., 2020). For that reason, is necessary arises models for the risk of forest fires in areas with low response capacity and high level of poverty like San Gerónimo district, specifically in the Andean community of Picol Orcopungio, because these wildfires can break out in there. The information was collected based on historical forest fires and the analysis of meteorological variability in the previously delimited area, which allowed the development of maps of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed, as inputs on the modeling of possible forest fires in the area. The results of the investigation showed valuable information on the characteristics of the Andean Community, the mapping of meteorological conditions, and the modeling of fire risk for agricultural areas, forest areas, and community areas. The investigation concludes that the characteristics of the Andean Community and the meteorological conditions of the study area present a high risk and contribute to the formation of forest fires, it also presents a risk model that allows for managing prevention and emergency operations in the Andean community.