A MULTIPLE MODEL APPROACH FOR FUTURE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HLB: SOUTH AMERICA CASE STUDY

Abstract

The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algorithms were used. Climate change estimates of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, by the 2050s and 2070s, were considered. Results of assessed models differed significantly in the estimation of areas with greater climatic risk for the establishment of HLB in South America. According to the estimates of the fifth IPCC report, the effects of climate change would determine that in future, high-risk areas for HLB establishment would be displaced towards the southwest of the areas considered riskier nowadays. Even individual models do not present a clear pattern for HLB establishment and distribution, the integration of the results generated by different algorithms in a consensus model, can provide additional information for phytosanitary decision making.

Keywords

• climate change
• hlb
• invasive species
• phytosanitary risk
• distribution model