Diabetes prediction model for unbalanced community follow-up data set based on optimal feature selection and scorecard

Abstract

Objectives Diabetes is a metabolic disease and early detection is crucial to ensuring a healthy life for people with prediabetes. Community care plays an important role in public health, but the association between community follow-up of key life characteristics and diabetes risk remains unclear. Based on the method of optimal feature selection and risk scorecard, follow-up data of diabetes patients are modeled to assess diabetes risk. Methods We conducted a study on the diabetes risk assessment model and risk scorecard using follow-up data from diabetes patients in Haizhu District, Guangzhou, from 2016 to 2023. The raw data underwent preprocessing and imbalance handling. Subsequently, features relevant to diabetes were selected and optimized to determine the optimal subset of features associated with community follow-up and diabetes risk. We established the diabetes risk assessment model. Furthermore, for a comprehensible and interpretable risk expression, the Weight of Evidence transformation method was applied to features. The transformed features were discretized using the quantile binning method to design the risk scorecard, mapping the model's output to five risk levels. Results In constructing the diabetes risk assessment model, the Random Forest classifier achieved the highest accuracy. The risk scorecard obtained an accuracy of 85.16%, precision of 87.30%, recall of 80.26%, and an F1 score of 83.27% on the unbalanced research dataset. The performance loss compared to the diabetes risk assessment model was minimal, suggesting that the binning method used for constructing the diabetes risk scorecard is reasonable, with very low feature information loss. Conclusion The methods provided in this article demonstrate effectiveness and reliability in the assessment of diabetes risk. The assessment model and scorecard can be directly applied to community doctors for large-scale risk identification and early warning and can also be used for individual self-examination to reduce risk factor levels.