Unveiling the Role of Climate and Environmental Dynamics in Shaping Forest Fire Patterns in Northern Zagros, Iran

Abstract

Wildfires present a major global environmental issue, exacerbated by climate change. The Iranian Northern Zagros Forests, characterized by a Mediterranean climate, are particularly vulnerable to fires during hot, dry summers. This study investigates the impact of climate change on forest fires in these forests from 2006 to 2023. The analysis revealed significant year-to-year fluctuations, with notable fire occurrence in years 2007, 2010, 2021, and 2023. The largest burned area occurred in 2021, covering 2655.66 ha, while 2006 had the smallest burned area of 175.27 ha. Climate variables such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, heat waves, and solar radiation were assessed for their effects on fire behavior. Strong correlations were found between higher average temperatures and larger burned areas, as well as between heat waves and increased fire frequency. Additionally, higher wind speeds were linked to larger burned areas, suggesting that increased wind speeds may enhance fire spread. Multiple linear regression models demonstrated high predictive accuracy, explaining 84% of the variance in burned areas and 69.6% in the variance in fire frequency. These findings document the growing wildfire risk in the Northern Zagros region due to climate change, highlighting the urgent need to integrate scientific research with policies to develop effective wildfire management strategies for sustainable forest management.

Keywords

• climate variables
• Heat Wave Magnitude Index
• fire ecology
• forest management
• Google Earth Engine
• multiple linear regression