Cari İşlemler Dengesini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Analizi: Türkiye Uygulaması(Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Current Account Balance: Turkey Case)

Abstract

Current account deficit is one of the major concerns of international financial markets in recent years. Concerns about current account deficits revolve around bankruptcy, illiquidity and financial stress. Since 1990, the Turkish economy has current account deficit every year, except for a few years. The main reason for these deficits is the growth policy preferred by Turkey after 2002. The aim of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic and financial variables specific to Turkey that affect the Current Account Balance using Cointegration Analysis and Vector Error Correction model. According to the Johansen Cointegration Test results, there are at most 21 (twentyone) cointegration equations among the variables in the long run. The Vector Error Correction Model used in the analysis of the short-term relationship is statistically significant at the 5% level. In the short run, the variables of Gold Price, Budget Balance, Banking Sector Credit Volume, Foreign Trade Balance and Turkish Lira 1-Month Deposit Purchase Rate have a statistically significant effect on the Current Account Balance. Contrary to expectations, the US Dollar / Turkish Lira exchange rate is not significant.

Keywords

• current account deficit
• cointergration analysis
• vector error correction model
• turkey