METHODOLOGY OF EVALUATED CHARACTERISTICS MODELING FOR INNOVATIVE PROJECTS

Abstract

The purpose of this research is methodology development for modeling estimated characteristics in assessing the effectiveness and risks of implementing innovative projects using binomial models. To achieve the stated goal, a comparative analysis of the cost estimation methods for the options of the Black - Scholes Option Pricing Model and the Cox - Ross - Rubinstein Binomial options pricing model was carried out in order to substantiate their use in determining indicators and creating tools for evaluating real options for innovative projects. A significant novelty of the study is the adaptation of options valuation methods for calculating the effectiveness of innovative projects from the perspective of multi-stage and multi-scenarios, as well as the use of binomial models using the theory of real options and a phased model for risk assessment of innovative projects. The development of a methodology for evaluating the characteristics of innovative projects will create an original model of phased risk assessment of innovative projects with further implementation in the form of a software product.

Keywords

• innovation projects
• evaluation characteristics
• real options
• binomial models
• effectiveness evaluation