Extreme heat threatens railroads with connectivity and ridership loss in the United States

Abstract

Abstract Railways’ susceptibility to extreme heat disrupts operations (e.g., track buckling, speed restrictions) and compromises the reliability, safety, and sustainability of rail travel. This study evaluates the susceptibility of the Amtrak rail network to extreme heat by assessing connectivity and ridership loss at the state, county, and station levels under moderate to severe disruption scenarios. At the state level, results indicate that states with higher station connectivity and ridership experience the greatest connectivity loss. Major hubs in New York, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia, with annual ridership between 3 and 8 million, are projected to lose 4 to 9 connections under extreme heat conditions. At the county level, mid-century projections indicate persistent vulnerability in counties such as New York (NY), Philadelphia (PA), and Baltimore (MD), while counties such as Henrico (VA), Sangamon (IL), and Richmond (NC) are expected to experience rising susceptibility due to increasing heat risk. At the station level, climate adaptation prioritization grounded in current and projected heat exposure, connectivity, and ridership indicates that high-priority stations for climate adaptation are disproportionately concentrated in urbanized areas. The findings underscore the need to integrate forward-looking climate data into route alignment, material specifications, station siting, and network expansion decisions to ensure long-term reliability and operational continuity under escalating climate stressors.