Evaluation of Hydropower Generation and Reservoir Operation under Climate Change from Kesem Reservoir, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate changes significantly cause the precipitation deficiency and in turn reduce the inflow amount in reservoir affecting hydroelectric power generation. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate hydropower generation and reservoir operation under climate change from Kesem reservoir. Recent Representative Pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on power generation. Power transformation equation and variance scaling approach were amalgamated to adjust the bias correction of precipitation and temperature, respectively. Bias, root mean square error, and coefficient of variation were used to check the accuracy of projected rainfall. The base and future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation trend was analysed using the Mann–Kendall test. The flow calibration and validation were carried out by the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), and hydropower generation was evaluated with reservoir simulation model (MODSIM 8.1) under climate scenarios. The performance of the model was found good with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) of 0.72 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.73 for calibration and NSE of 0.74 and R2 of 0.75 for validation. Projected future climate scenarios predicted increasing and decreasing trend of temperature and precipitation, respectively. For RCP4.5 climate scenario, the average energy generation is likely to decrease by 0.64% and 0.82% in both short-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2051–2080), respectively. In case of RCP8.5 climate scenario, the average energy generation will be decreased by 1.06% and 1.35% for short-term and long-term, respectively. Remarkable reduction of energy generation was revealed in RCP8.5 with relation to RCP4.5 scenario. This indicates that there will be high energy fluctuation and decreasing trend in the future energy generation. The research finding is crucial for decision-makers, power authorities, governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and watershed management agencies to take care for sustainability in the future hydropower generation in the Kesem reservoir.