Trend analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality of CKD in China and the US

Abstract

Abstract Background Currently, limited research is available on the comparative analysis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and mortality rates between China and the United States. This study aimed to explore the trends in CKD incidence and mortality rates in both countries, as well as make some future predictions. Methods The data on CKD incidence and mortality in China and the US from 1990 to 2019 were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends in CKD incidence and mortality. An age-period-cohort model was used to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on CKD risk and forecast the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CKD in China and the US over the next 15 years. Results CKD incidence in China and the US showed an upward trend. Its mortality rate showed a downward trend in China but an upward one in the US. The relative risk (RR) of CKD incidence and mortality increases with age. The RR of CKD incidence in the 0–5 age group exceeds that in the 5–55 age group, and the RR for mortality surpasses that in the 5–35 age group. Over time, the RR of CKD incidence has gradually increased in China and the US. Individuals born in later birth cohorts had a lower RR of CKD incidence and mortality. The ASIR of CKD may increase in both China and the US, whereas its ASMR may decline over the next 15 years. Conclusion Screening measures should be strengthened among populations at high risk of CKD; prenatal examinations of pregnant women should be emphasized to reduce CKD incidence in newborns. It is imperative to increase health education and encourage individuals to adopt healthy lifestyles.

Keywords

• CKD
• Incidence
• Mortality
• Joinpoint
• Age-period-cohort
• Prediction