Evaluation and Projection of Climate Change in Southwest China Using CMIP6 Models

Abstract

Based on temperature and precipitation data to evaluate the ability of 24 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 （CMIP6） and multi-model ensemble（MME）to simulate summer climate change in Southwest China， and projected the future climate change characteristics Summer Climate Characteristics in Southwest China under four scenarios （SSP1-2.6， SSP2-4.5， SSP3-7.0， and SSP5-8.5） based on the best multi-model ensemble （BMME）.The results showed that： （1） CESM2-WACCM， EC-Earth3， CMCC-CM2-SR5， GFDL-ESM4， TaiESM1， and MPI-ESM1-2-HR have better performance in simulating summer temperatures in the southwest region； INM-CM4-8， KACE-1-0-G， ACCESS-CM2， NorESM2- LM， EC-Earth3， and ACCESS-ESM1-5 have better simulation performance for precipitation.（2） Both MME and BMME can reproduce the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in Southwest China summer， and BMME significantly outperforms MME in the simulation of temperature and precipitation， especially in the simulation of interannual variability of precipitation.However， the CMIP6 models still overestimate precipitation in southeastern Tibet.（3） In the future climate prediction， the temperature in Southwest China will continue to increase， and show a more obvious difference in the increase of the strong north and weak south.（4） In the middle and late 21st century， the precipitation in western Tibet will be significantly enhanced， and the increase of precipitation in the late period can be more than 66% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Keywords

• southwest china
• climate change
• cmip6
• evaluation and projection