Ziyuan Kexue (Jan 2024)
Evolution and vulnerability analysis of the global trade pattern in the lithium industry chain
Abstract
[Objective] This study aims to simulate the vulnerability of the lithium industry trade network in the event of interruption risks. The goal is to effectively identify key nodes and potential risks in the network, providing decision support for optimizing trade patterns and avoiding interruption risks. [Methods] Analyzing the evolution of the lithium industry trade pattern based on trade flow methods, intentional attack simulations were conducted to assess the vulnerability of the lithium industry trade network after trade interruptions occurred in the top 10% of nodes by PageRank centrality. [Results] The research reveals: (1) The global trade pattern of the lithium industry chain is undergoing profound restructuring and transformation, with China’s position highlighted in the global trade network. (2) Invulnerability in the upstream network of the lithium industry chain has improved during the sample period, while the risk resistance capabilities of the midstream and downstream networks are relatively stable. (3) The vulnerability ranking of the lithium industry chain is downstream < midstream < upstream. When trade interruptions occur in the top 10% of global key nodes, the overall performance of the upstream, midstream, and downstream trade networks decreases by an average of 60%, 35%, and 23.5%, respectively. [Conclusion] To maintain the security and stability of China’s and the global lithium industry, the following measures should be implemented: enhance and refine safety risk warning and emergency support mechanisms within the lithium industry chain; establish a cooperative, win-win framework among key stakeholders in the lithium industry chain to bolster positive response capabilities across the industry, supply chain, and value chain; and improve domestic self-sufficiency and global allocation capabilities for lithium resources.
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