Conservation Tillage Technology: A Study on the Duration from Awareness to Adoption and Its Influencing Factors—Based on the Survey of the Yellow River Basin in China

Abstract

Studying the dynamic duration of technology adoption helps farmers weigh and select different attributes and stages of conservation tillage techniques. In this study, non-parametric K-M survival analysis and discrete duration models were employed to estimate the time taken by farmers in the Yellow River Basin region to transition from awareness to the adoption of conservation tillage techniques between 2002 and 2020. The results indicate (1) The duration from awareness to adoption of conservation tillage technology is relatively short. (2) The likelihood of farmers postponing adoption decisions is highest in the initial 10 years and gradually decreases over time, suggesting negative time dependency. (3) Controlling for proportional hazards assumptions, it was found that factors such as education level and social learning positively influence the duration from awareness to adoption of conservation tillage techniques. Extreme weather variations and household labor migration delay the adoption time for farmers. In the process of promoting and implementing conservation tillage techniques, it is essential to consider the issue of intertemporal technology choice, stimulate farmers’ intrinsic demand, shorten the time interval from awareness to adoption, and ultimately improve technology adoption rates.

Keywords

• conservation tillage technology
• adoption of time persistence
• nonparametric K-M survival analysis method
• discrete duration model