Interannual Variability of Snowiness and Avalanche Activity in the Ile Alatau Ridge, Northern Tien Shan

Abstract

Snowiness and avalanche activity are very important natural characteristics of mountain areas. They have a great influence on the possibility of areas’ development, especially regarding winter recreation. This article considers the interannual variability of snowiness and avalanche activity in the Ile Alatau Ridge (Northern Tien Shan), which belongs to the areas with a continental snow climate. The sum of winter precipitation and snow depth are used as snowiness indices, and the indices of avalanche activity are the total avalanche volume, maximum avalanche volume and number of avalanches. The work uses archival data for the period from 1966 to 2022. Interannual variability of snowiness and avalanche activity indices and long-term temporal trends were assessed, correlation between these indices was studied, and extreme values with different return periods were calculated. The relationship between years with a high snowiness and years with a high avalanche activity, as well as years with a high avalanche activity and years with a large number of avalanche victims and high avalanche damage has been studied. Similar studies have not been previously carried out for the areas with a continental snow climate. Snowiness indices have weak, non-significant, increasing temporal trends. The total avalanche volume has a non-significant decreasing temporal trend, and the maximum avalanche volume has a significant decreasing one. The number of avalanches has a significant increasing temporal trend. This study could be relevant for understanding the features of temporal variability of snowiness and avalanche activity in the mountainous regions with a continental snow climate.

Keywords

• avalanche activity
• avalanche victims
• avalanche volumes
• interannual variability
• long-term temporal trends
• Northern Tien Shan