Assessment of Thailand Socio-Economic Impact towards Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Actions in 2030 Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model

Abstract

The threat of climate change has urged increased global awareness and apprehension concerning interactions between society, the economy and the environment. Thailand has made a pledge to the United Nations in the form of NDC (National Determined Contributions) committing that the Kingdom will reduce its GHG emissions within 2030 by 20 % through its own efforts and by 25 % with international support on technology transfer and capacity building compared to the emissions in BaU. To support the GHG emissions reduction target, the country has adopted several mitigation plans including its own sustainable development plan, energy efficiency plan, and renewable energy plan, as well as a sustainable transport plan and others. This study aims to elaborate on the country’s socio-economic impact as it strives to achieve the NDC mitigation target by 2030 using a variety of sustainability scenarios. The research approach used a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Thailand. The result of employing the model showed that introducing GHG mitigation actions in industrial energy efficiency improvement could help increase GDP by 1.9 % in 2030 compared to BaU. However, it would also increase the GHG price by 2,517 THB/t CO2-eq due to the increase of energy usage from enhanced devices and machinery efficiency. Cryogenic carbon capture technology could minimize GDP loss by 0.4 % while drastically reducing GHG price by 3,978 THB/t CO2-eq compared to a scenario without mitigation action. Combined energy efficiency improvement and cryogenic carbon capture actions show the best result since it potentially increases GDP by 2.1 % compared to BaU while also reducing GHG price by 2,747 THB/t CO2-eq compared to a scenario without mitigation action in 2030. Primary energy supplies in this study have also been shifted from high carbon content to clean energy in all mitigation action scenarios.