Demystifying COVID-19 pandemic modelling for policymaking

Abstract

Mathematical modelling is used widely to inform COVID-19 pandemic policy. Infectious diseases modelling is a long-established science used to estimate future outcomes under various conditions, that can inform policy decisions. Each model depends on assumptions made, the specific modelling methods used and the scenarios explored. Non-modellers can evaluate models using the following principles.

Keywords

• mathematical modelling, epidemics, policy