Greenland Wind-Wave Bivariate Dynamics by Gaidai Natural Hazard Spatiotemporal Evaluation Approach

Abstract

The current work presents a case study for the state-of-the-art multimodal risk assessment approach, which is especially appropriate for environmental wind-wave dynamic systems that are either directly physically observed or numerically modeled. High dimensionality of the wind-wave environmental system and cross-correlations between its primary dimensions or components make it quite challenging for existing reliability methods. The primary goal of this investigation has been the application of a novel multivariate hazard assessment methodology to a combined windspeed and correlated wave-height unfiltered/raw dataset, which was recorded in 2024 by in situ NOAA buoy located southeast offshore of Greenland. Existing hazard/risk assessment methods are mostly limited to univariate or at most bivariate dynamic systems. It is well known that the interaction of windspeeds and corresponding wave heights results in a multimodal, nonstationary, and nonlinear dynamic environmental system with cross-correlated components. Alleged global warming may represent additional factor/covariate, affecting ocean windspeeds and related wave heights dynamics. Accurate hazard/risk assessment of in situ environmental systems is necessary for naval, marine, and offshore structures that operate within particular offshore/ocean zones of interest, susceptible to nonstationary ocean weather conditions. Benchmarking of the novel spatiotemporal multivariate reliability approach, which may efficiently extract relevant information from the underlying in situ field dataset, has been the primary objective of the current work. The proposed multimodal hazard/risk evaluation methodology presented in this study may assist designers and engineers to effectively assess in situ environmental and structural risks for multimodal, nonstationary, nonlinear ocean-driven wind-wave-related environmental/structural systems. The key result of the presented case study lies within the demonstration of the methodological superiority, compared to a popular bivariate copula reliability approach.

Keywords

• natural hazards
• climate
• reliability
• waves
• environmental system
• risk