Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model

Abstract

Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling are important inputs into seismic hazard estimates. Although the importance of seismic coupling is often overlooked, it significantly impacts seismic hazard results. We present an estimation of upper and lower seismogenic depth and expected hypocentral depth and seismic coupling in the transition zone between the Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin, characterized by a complex deformation pattern, highly variable crustal thickness, and moderate seismic hazard, supporting the development of the 2021 seismic hazard model of Slovenia. The hazard model was based on three seismic source models: area source model, fault source model and smoothed seismicity (point) source model. We estimated the lower seismogenic depth using seismological and geological data and compared them. The seismological estimate was based on two regional earthquake catalogues prepared for this study. In the area source model, estimates of lower seismogenic depth from seismological data are deeper or equal to the ones derived from geological data, except in one case. In the fault source model, we analysed each fault individually and chose seismological lower depth estimates in 12 among 89 faults as more representative. The seismogenic thickness for each individual fault source was determined for seismic coupling determination. The seismic coupling was assessed by two approaches, i.e. we chose the most trusted value from the literature, and the value determined for each fault individually by using the approach based on the updated regional fault and earthquake data sets. The final estimate of seismic coupling ranges from 0.77 to 0.38. We compared the tectonic moment rate based on long-term slip rate using different values of seismic coupling with the seismic moment rate obtained from the earthquake catalogue. The analysis is done for the whole area, as well as for the individual area zones. The analysis of N–S components of estimated slip for the largest faults in the area of west Slovenia shows that the regional geological and geodetic shortening rates are comparable. The total activity rate of three global seismic source models is compared, which gives up to a 10 % difference. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the seismic activity in the region. The presented approach for seismic coupling estimation can be applied in cases where the total slip rate is given instead of its seismic part and can be used at regional or national level. The approach is also suitable for the cross-border harmonization of the European seismic hazard modelling data.