Applying Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System to Improve Typhoon Intensity Forecast in the Northwest Pacific

Abstract

Typhoon intensity forecast is an important issue. The objective of this study is to construct a 5-day 12-hourly typhoon intensity forecast model based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) to improve the typhoon intensity forecast in the Northwest Pacific. It analyzed the improvement of the ANFIS typhoon intensity forecast model by comparing it with the MLR model when only the atmospheric factor or both atmospheric and oceanic factors are considered. This study collected the SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) developmental data of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific before landing from 2000 to 2012. The input factors of the ANFIS model were simplified by the stepwise regression procedure (SRP). Subtractive clustering (SC) was used to determine the number of ANFIS rules and to reduce model complexity. Model Index (MI) was taken as the clustering standard of SC to determine the network architecture of the ANFIS typhoon intensity forecast model. The simulated results show that the MI could effectively determine the radius of influence of SC. The typhoon intensity forecast was significantly improved after oceanic environmental factors were added. The improvement of RMSE of ANFIS was the highest at 84 h; the improvement of ANFIS on the underestimated ratio was primarily positive. The Typhoon Songda case study shows that the maximum bias of ANFIS is greatly improved, at 60 h of the lead time, and the improvement percentage of maximum bias is the highest (39%). Overall, the ANFIS model could effectively improve the MLR model in typhoon intensity forecast.

Keywords

• typhoon intensity forecast
• adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
• stepwise regression procedure
• SHIPS
• subtractive clustering