Ensemble Tree Model for Long-Term Rockburst Prediction in Incomplete Datasets

Abstract

The occurrence of rockburst can seriously impact the construction and production of deep underground engineering. To prevent rockburst, machine learning (ML) models have been widely employed to predict rockburst based on some related variables. However, due to the costs and complicated geological conditions, complete datasets to evaluate rockburst cannot always be obtained in rock engineering. To fill this limitation, this study proposed an ensemble tree model suitable for incomplete datasets, i.e., the histogram gradient boosting tree (HGBT), to build intelligent models for rockburst prediction. Three hundred fourteen rockburst cases were employed to develop the HGBT model. The hunger game search (HGS) algorithm was implemented to optimize the HGBT model. The established HGBT model had an excellent testing performance (accuracy of 88.9%). An incomplete database with missing values was applied to compare the performances of HGBT and other ML models (random forest, artificial neural network, and so on). HGBT received an accuracy of 78.8% in the incomplete database, and its capacity was better than that of other ML models. Additionally, the importance of input variables in the HGBT model was analyzed. Finally, the feasibility of the HGBT model was validated by rockburst cases from Sanshandao Gold Mine, China.

Keywords

• rockburst prediction
• histogram gradient boosting tree
• hunger game search algorithm